Germans head to the polls on Sunday in a national election that could return Friedrich Merz’s conservative bloc to power, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is on track for its strongest electoral showing to date.
German election
Polling indicates that Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), hold a comfortable lead. However, they are unlikely to secure an outright parliamentary majority, setting the stage for coalition negotiations in Germany’s fragmented political system.
The vote comes amid deep public divisions over migration and mounting economic challenges, with the future of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) hanging in the balance.
Analysts expect coalition talks to be lengthy, potentially leaving Scholz in a caretaker role for months as Germany’s political parties negotiate a governing arrangement, according to Reuters.
Economic concerns have been a central theme of the campaign. Europe’s largest economy has contracted for two consecutive years, while rising global competition has intensified voter unease. A recent Gallup poll showed that only 27% of Germans believe their living standards are improving, down sharply from 42% a year earlier.
Public attitudes toward migration have also hardened significantly since Germany’s open-door policy during the 2015 refugee crisis.
AfD breakthrough
The AfD, founded just over a decade ago, is projected to finish second—a historic result for the far-right party. While its rising support underscores shifting voter sentiment, mainstream parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, limiting its immediate influence on government formation.
Political analysts, however, say the party’s momentum could have long-term consequences for Germany’s political landscape ahead of the next federal election in 2029.
Coalition challenges
Sunday’s election follows the collapse of Scholz’s governing coalition of the SPD, the Greens, and the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) after a dispute over budget policy. The SPD is now bracing for what could be its worst electoral result since World War Two.
Any incoming government will face significant domestic and international challenges, including the need to revive economic growth, manage potential trade tensions with the United States, and navigate diplomatic efforts around a possible ceasefire in Ukraine—talks that could marginalize European leaders.
Analysts say the most likely outcome is a renewed “grand coalition” between the CDU/CSU and the SPD. However, if several smaller parties clear Germany’s 5% parliamentary threshold, a more complex three-party coalition may be required, potentially prolonging negotiations to form a new government.
